Is Albo destined to be a one-term PM?

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As the summer holiday ends and election season begins, opinion polls continue to head in the wrong direction for Anthony Albanese. So it is not too early to ask the question: what is the legacy of the first (and perhaps only) term of the Albanese government?

Of course, every government ushers in new policies; we have seen plenty during Albanese’s time. By “legacy”, I don’t mean incremental policy changes, or even fundamental policy shifts which are unwound by future governments. I mean the enduring reforms that stand the test of time – the nation-altering initiatives by which prime ministers cement their place in history.

What is the big, nation-changing reform for which Albanese’s government will always be remembered? Photo: Kate GeraghtyCredit: Kate Geraghty

Menzies created ANZUS. Holt was responsible for the 1967 referendum. Whitlam gave us Medibank (now Medicare), Aboriginal land rights and much else beside. Multiculturalism was the legacy of Fraser, and internationalising the economy the signature achievement of Hawke. Keating gave us compulsory superannuation, Howard the GST. Rudd will always be remembered for the apology to the stolen generations. Gillard conceived the NDIS. Abbott stopped the boats. Turnbull delivered marriage equality. Morrison gave us AUKUS.

These were not the only important achievements of those governments, but each of them became emblematic. They all changed Australia in profound ways, even if, like Rudd’s apology, they were essentially symbolic. (Sometimes, words can matter as much as actions.) Some were controversial at the time, but each achieved such overwhelming public support that they ultimately commanded bipartisan consensus. And so they became lasting milestones in our national story.

What is the big, nation-changing reform for which Albanese’s government will always be remembered? None of its defining policies – such as its renewables-only energy policy, or its crony-capitalist industry policy – will outlast a change of government. Nor will its changes to industrial relations law: not “reforms”, but productivity-inhibiting measures so reactionary that they take us back to the 1970s. Tinkering around the edges of apprenticeships or schools funding are not nation-changing reforms on the scale of Medicare or multiculturalism.

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Sadly, the one big thing for which Albanese will be remembered in decades to come is his failure to deliver the Voice. It is the big event which will forever define his government. It was a multidimensional failure: not only did the proposal itself fail, but that failure froze, for many years to come, any appetite for another referendum. Say goodbye to important constitutional reforms such as four-year parliamentary terms. As for the republic, forget it.

Of course, all governments have big failures as well as big achievements: just think of Howard’s Workchoices, or Turnbull’s energy policy. But the failures are less important than the successes, simply because the failures, by definition, do not become part of the nation’s architecture, whereas the big achievements do. Failures are today’s political dramas – the screaming newspaper headlines which, in years to come, are of interest only to political historians. The achievements are what shape the future.

For a newly elected government to squander the chance for lasting reform is a hugely wasted opportunity. That is particularly so in the case of Labor governments, whose whole raison d’etre is meant to be progressivism. Liberal governments have been reformers too (see above), but their strongest brand is as competent managers. Labor’s conceit of itself is that it is the party that makes the big, history-making breakthroughs. Not this government.
If you’re a Labor voter, while I don’t share your politics, I can imagine how disappointed you must be.

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